How Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Adam Baker
Adam Baker

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